October 6, 2024
Oil Risk Premium: Netanyahu Has Duty to Respond, IDF Plans a Serious & Significant Response and Can Hit Anywhere in Iran
By Dan Tsubouchi
September 29, 2024
What if Iran Doesn’t Directly Attack Now That Israel has Killed Hamas Leader in July and Hezbollah Leader on Friday?
By Dan Tsubouchi
September 22, 2024
EU Aug BEV Sales -43.9% YoY, EU Auto Industry Calls for Urgent Action as Demand for BEVs Declines
By Dan Tsubouchi
September 15, 2024
Chinese Consumer Hit: New Home Prices Down for 15th Straight Month, 2nd Hand Home Prices Down for 16th Straight Month
By Dan Tsubouchi
September 8, 2024
321 Crack Spreads -$2.27 WoW to $14.79. Haven’t been <$15 Since Feb/21 when WTI was ~$60.
By Dan Tsubouchi
September 1, 2024
Libya Oil Production Down by ~700,000 b/d on Wed, but Some Might be Restored for Domestic Refineries and Power Plants
By Dan Tsubouchi
August 25, 2024
Libya Watch: UN Says Headed to Greater Domestic & Regional Instability, House Speaker Warns of Risk for Oil Shut-down
By Dan Tsubouchi
August 18, 2024
Chinese Consumers Key Asset Down Again: Home Value Down14th Consecutive Mth For New Homes, 15th Mth for Used Homes
By Dan Tsubouchi
August 11, 2024
Did Summer Oil Demand Pick Up? Vortexa Global Oil FloatingStorage Last Two Weeks are Two of Lowest since Covid
By Dan Tsubouchi
August 4, 2024
Vortexa Floating Oil Storage is Lowest Since Covid at 56.75 mmb: Positive if Revisions Keep it in 60’s & 60’s are Maintained
By Dan Tsubouchi
July 28, 2024
Netanyahu tells Congress it’s not if but when Israel takes action to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons
By Dan Tsubouchi
July 21, 2024
When Will Israel Act? US says Iran is 1 or 2 Weeks from Breakout Capacity to Produce Nuclear Material for a Weapon
By Dan Tsubouchi
July 14, 2024
No Changes in Oil Demand Growth Forecasts for 2024: IEA Still at +1.0 mmb/d YoY, OPEC Still at +2.2 mmb/d YoY
By Dan Tsubouchi
July 7, 2024
Supreme Leader Recommends New Iran President Pezeshkian Continue the Path of Former President, Hardliner Raeisi
By Dan Tsubouchi
June 30, 2024
Barclays CEO: “The world and the world economy cannot go cold turkey on this [Oil, Natural Gas] tomorrow”
By Dan Tsubouchi
June 23, 2024
Continued Holdback to Oil: Iran Expects to Add 0.4 mmb/d to Reach 4.0 mmb/d by March 2025
By Dan Tsubouchi
June 16, 2024
IEA Forecasts Peak Oil Demand by 2030 But Its Key Assumption EVs Displace 6 mmb/d of Fuels Has to be Questioned
By Dan Tsubouchi
June 9, 2024
New Zealand needs to “attract investment in exploration AND production” to increase natural gas to keep economy running
By Dan Tsubouchi
June 2, 2024
Imagine if Toyota or GM, not BYD, had Announced its Hybrids Had a Range of >2,000 Km Without Refueling/Recharging
By Dan Tsubouchi
May 26, 2024
Why Now Does India Want Refiners to Lock-in Long-Term Discounted Russian Oil?
By Dan Tsubouchi
May 19, 2024
EIA Forecasts US Shale/Tight Oil for June, Including in the Permian, to Stay Basically Flat for 5th Consecutive Month
By Dan Tsubouchi
May 12, 2024
Vitol: Strong YoY Growth in Oil Demand BUT Seeing an Easing of 2024 Demand Forecasts including Less Diesel
By Dan Tsubouchi
May 7, 2024
Tehran-based Danial Rahmat: Last 3 Mths, Iran Decided to Sell Most of its Floating Oil & Condensate with Remarkable Discounts
By Dan Tsubouchi
May 5, 2024
Netanyahu: “Israel Will Not Agree to Hamas’s Demand” and “Hamas Remains Entrenched in its Positions”
By Dan Tsubouchi
April 28, 2024
EU Waiting to See if any Damage to Ukraine Natural Gas Infrastructure from Multiple Russia “Hits” Yesterday
By Dan Tsubouchi
April 21, 2024
Vortexa: Iran Floating Oil Storage Up 10 mmb in March, Struggling to Find China Buyers Despite Deeper Discounts
By Dan Tsubouchi
April 14, 2024
Game Changer? Iran Unleashes Massive Drone / Missile Attack Against Israel i.e. Didn’t Hide Behind its Proxies
By Dan Tsubouchi
April 7, 2024
Will Markets See Iran’s No Israeli Embassy is Safe Anymore as Taking Direct Military/Missile Attack on Israel Off the Table?
By Dan Tsubouchi
March 31, 2024
Helima Croft “closely watching whether Ukraine moves at some stage to target actual [Russian] export facilities”
By Dan Tsubouchi
March 24, 2024
Vitol “seeing jet fuel now back to averaging around 6.9 mmb/d over the last 4-weeks, which is back to 2019 levels”
By Dan Tsubouchi
March 17, 2024
321 Crack Spreads $33.00 Provide Big Margins for Refiners to Buy & Process as much Oil as Possible
By Dan Tsubouchi
March 10, 2024
Will OPEC Lower Its +2.2 mmb/d YoY Oil Demand Growth in 2024 Given Saudi Aramco is Lower at +1.5 mmb/d YoY?
By Dan Tsubouchi
March 5, 2024
Vitol’s Mike Muller on Oil: “Market is Justified in Feeling Upbeat and Positive About Chinese Demand Growth”
By Dan Tsubouchi
March 3, 2024
Trans Mountain Calls for Line-Fill in Apr/May Points to June Start for 590,000 b/d TMX Expansion
By Dan Tsubouchi
February 25, 2024
Macron Hurts IEA Analysis Credibility “The IEA has become, so to speak, our armed wing of implementing the Paris agreement”
By Dan Tsubouchi
February 18, 2024
Is Min. Guilbeault Setting the Stage to Delay Canada’s Mandatory EVs Sales Targets by Saying EVs Are Not a Panacea?
By Dan Tsubouchi
February 11, 2024
Orsted Cuts Renewable Energy Investment by $30b to 2030, Which Cuts its Wind Power Capacity Additions by 24-30%
By Dan Tsubouchi
February 4, 2024
Last 48 Hours Sees Big Escalation of US Airstrikes Against Houthis in Yemen and Targets in Iraq, and Syria
By Dan Tsubouchi
January 28, 2024
Houthis “still keen on peace with the least amount of escalation possible” but warn can hit Red, Arabian & Mediterranean Sea
By Dan Tsubouchi
January 21, 2024
IEA “OPEC+ supply management policies may tip the oil market into a small deficit at the start of the year” i.e., OPEC cuts working
By Dan Tsubouchi
January 14, 2024
US/UK Missile Attacks on Houthis, Who Say Their Response Will Be Largest Drone/Missile Attack
By Dan Tsubouchi
January 7, 2024
US Attacking Houthis Seems Inevitable Especially with US Navy Shooting Down a Drone in “Self-Defense”
By Dan Tsubouchi
December 31, 2023
Maersk Pause Red Sea Transit Post Houthis Missile/Boat Attack, US Navy Saves & Sinks 3 Houthis Small Boats Killing
By Dan Tsubouchi
December 24, 2023
Strait of Hormuz Risk as US says Iran Drone Hit a Tanker in the Arabian Sea, Reportedly After Loading/Stopping in Saudi Arabia
By Dan Tsubouchi
December 17, 2023
Is US Building the Case for Potential Strike On Houthis byAdmitting Its Drones Have “Directly” Targeted US Navy Ships?
By Dan Tsubouchi
December 10, 2023
Liberal’s Proposes Cap on GHG Emissions at 35-38% Below2019 Levels on Oil & Gas Would be a Huge Impact on the Sector
By Dan Tsubouchi
December 3, 2023
China Mobility Impact? Its National Health Commission Suggested Reducing Large Gatherings in Public Places
By Dan Tsubouchi
November 26, 2023
OPEC+, We Expect Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz to Deliver Something More than a Minimum OPEC+ Deal
By Dan Tsubouchi
November 19, 2023
EIA’s LNG Export Capacity Forecast Reminds There is an Opportunity for >15 bcf/d of Added US/CAN Natural Gas Supply
By Dan Tsubouchi
November 12, 2023
Bad Week For US Net Zero: 1st Likely SMR Terminated, PLUG’s Green Hydrogen Cost Warning, EVs 38% Less Mileage vs ICE
By Dan Tsubouchi
November 5, 2023
Vitol Reminds China Fuel Sales Solid But Unseasonably High Oil Stocks Plus Low Refiner Margins Point to Less Oil Imports
By Dan Tsubouchi
October 29, 2023
Shouldn’t US Shooting Down Houthis 4 Cruise/30 Drones in Red Sea Bring Risk to Tanker Transit in Red Sea/Bab el Mandeb?
By Dan Tsubouchi
October 22, 2023
Vortexa: 3rd Consecutive Week of Very Low Oil in Floating Storage, Lowest Since Covid
By Dan Tsubouchi
October 15, 2023
Exxon’s Shale Advancement on 4-mile Permian Wells with Heel-to-Toe Completion Success = Increased Value in Contiguous Land
By Dan Tsubouchi
October 8, 2023
Trans Mountain CEO: 1st Oil at West Coast Loading Terminal in March for 590,000 b/d TMX Expansion
By Dan Tsubouchi
October 1, 2023
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink “That is why we said do not ever divest of hydrocarbons.”
By Dan Tsubouchi
September 24, 2023
Did US/Iran Deal Also Unlock >$12b Iraq Owes to Iran for Natural Gas That Won’t be Restricted to Humanitarian Uses?
By Dan Tsubouchi
September 17, 2023
IEA: Extension of Saudi & Russia Output Cuts Thru Yr-End “Will Lock in a Substantial [Oil] Market Deficit Through 4Q23”
By Dan Tsubouchi
September 10, 2023
G20 “critical to assess … macroeconomic impact of both the physical impact of climate change and transition policies, including on growth, inflation, & unemployment”
By Dan Tsubouchi
September 3, 2023
RWE CEO “Worst-Case Scenario for the Energy Transition” as Offshore Wind Projects in EU and US have been Stopped
By Dan Tsubouchi
August 27, 2023
LNG Canada Will Inevitably Drive Multi-Year M&A for Cdn Natural Gas
By Dan Tsubouchi
August 20, 2023
Do Two Shorter-Term LNG Deals Mean the Post-July 2021 Buyer Rush to Lock Up Long-Term (>10 yrs) LNG Supply is Ending?
By Dan Tsubouchi
August 13, 2023
Can or Will Anyone Stop Iran Adding ~600,000 b/d to Oil Markets in Next Few Months?
By Dan Tsubouchi
August 6, 2023
Ukraine Declares Waters Around Six Russian Black Sea Ports, Including Its Oil Export Port Navorossiysk, are “War Risk Areas”
By Dan Tsubouchi
July 30, 2023
Surely, It’s a Question of When, Not If, Shell FIDs What CEO Sawan Says is a “Very Attractive” LNG Canada Phase 2
By Dan Tsubouchi
July 23, 2023
G20 Elevates Energy Security, Access, Affordability & Market Stability to Same Priority as Advancing Energy Transitions
By Dan Tsubouchi
July 16, 2023
No Peak Oil Demand, IEA Increases 2024 Oil Demand Forecast to 103.2 mmb/d After Reducing 2023 Demand by 0.2 mmb/d
By Dan Tsubouchi
July 9, 2023
Massive Increase in BC Wildfires Over Past 48 Hrs: At 9am MT, Up to 242 Active Wildfires Incl 154 Out of Control Wildfires
By Dan Tsubouchi
July 2, 2023
Vitol “we have a sense of balance, rather than the predicted tightening of the [#Oil] market, which may yet occur later this year”
By Dan Tsubouchi
June 25, 2023
Questions Are Just Starting What Happens To Putin, Russia, Ukraine, Oil, Markets, etc. Now 24-hr Prigozhin Challenge Ended
By Dan Tsubouchi
June 18, 2023
Blinken’s Non-Denial Denial Won’t Squash Expectations That a US/Iran Nuclear “Understanding” is Getting Close
By Dan Tsubouchi
June 11, 2023
Seems Saudi’s Extra 1 mmbd Cut Should Hold the Market For a Month or Two Until Summer Seasonal Demand Kicks In
By Dan Tsubouchi
June 4, 2023
No Shortage of LNG Buyers for Post-2026 Supply, Qatar Expects Multiple Deals Including with Europeans
By Dan Tsubouchi
May 28, 2023
China’s Model Predicts Covid Cases Peak ~65 Million/Week in Late June, Reminds Model Calculations “Might Not Be Accurate”
By Dan Tsubouchi
May 21, 2023
Oil Growth Challenge: Permian DUCs at Fall 2014 Levels, When Permian Oil was 1.67 mmb/d, 35% of 5.79 mmb/d in May 2023
By Dan Tsubouchi
May 14, 2023
Norway: “We Must Further Develop Our Petroleum Sector”
By Dan Tsubouchi
April 30, 2023
NOV Q1 Call: “Growing Confidence that US Unconventional Growth is Slowing Significantly”
By Dan Tsubouchi
April 23, 2023
Permian DUCs Down to June 2014 Levels, When Permian Oil Production was 1.59 mmb/d, 28% of 5.69 mmb/d in March 2023
By Dan Tsubouchi
April 16, 2023
Warren Buffett: World will Still Need 100 mmb/d of Oil in 5 Years Even If Trillions are Spent Every Year on Energy Transition
By Dan Tsubouchi
April 9, 2023
Stalling China Recovery, Scheduled Domestic Flights in April Only +3% to 98,517 Flights, Not Prior Scheduled 119,180 Flights
By Dan Tsubouchi
April 2, 2023
OPEC+ to Implement Voluntary 1.16 mmb/d Cuts Effective May 1 thru Dec 31
By Dan Tsubouchi
March 26, 2023
900,000 b/d of Crude Demand Currently Hit by Strikes & Accidents Halting Major France Refinery Operations
By Dan Tsubouchi
March 19, 2023
IEA OMR: Building Near-Term Global Oil Stocks Then “Global Demand is Set to Surge by 3.2 mb/d from 1Q23 to 4Q23”
By Dan Tsubouchi
March 12, 2023
Saudi Aramco CEO “Risks of Underinvestment in our Industry are Real – Including Contributing to Higher Energy Prices”
By Dan Tsubouchi
February 26, 2023
Russia’s Oil Operating Costs +19% YoY to $44/b in 2022, No Wonder There is a “Voluntary” 500,000 b/d Shut-In
By Dan Tsubouchi
February 19, 2023
Shell Working Hard Right Now/Progressing LNG Canada Phase 2 FID Hard Right Now, But Don’t Think Will Come This Year
By Dan Tsubouchi
February 12, 2023
Is Russia’s Voluntary 500,000 b/d Cut Because the Oil isn’t Profitable?
By Dan Tsubouchi
February 5, 2023
Shell CEO “world is desperately in need of natural gas” and needs to “make up for the long-term loss of Russian supplies”
By Dan Tsubouchi
January 22, 2023
ETight/Short Oil/Gas Supply for 2020s? SLB’s “Distinctive” New Phase in Upcycle, “It’s Multi-Pronged. It Moves Multiple Engines, Short and Long, Oil and Gas, Offshore and Onshore”
By Dan Tsubouchi
January 15, 2023
EIA’s First Look at 2024: Record Oil Consumption +1.72 mmb/d YoY to 102.2 mmb/d ie. No Sign of Peak Oil Demand
By Dan Tsubouchi
January 8, 2023
1st China Spring Festival Without Covid Restrictions is Set Up for Q1 Herd Immunity Then Sustained Demand Recovery in 2023
By Dan Tsubouchi
January 1, 2023
China Speeding to Herd Immunity, Reports of Big Pick Up in Activity in Cities Like Beijing that have Hit Peak Covid
By Dan Tsubouchi