Here is a step thru of the math that shows the found barrels this week to get to the plus go the oil inventory numbers
The EIA oil inventory numbers were released today. The key number is crude oil inventory which was down 1.9 million barrels vs last week. This week it was 502.7 million barrels vs 504.9 million barrels last week.
The math shows that the EIA’s adjustment this week was 240,000 b/d or 1.68 million b/d. These are essentially found barrels that they are adding to get back to the 502.7 million barrels. Without the adjustment, the crude oil inventory would have been 501 million barrels or down 3.6 million barrels.
Here is how the math works.
- Lines 1-3, show US production was 8.497 million b/d, which should add by itself 59.479 million barrels to oil inventory
- Lines 4-9, show NET imports of oil this week was 7.328 million b/d, which should add 51.3 milion barrels to oil inventory
- Line 14 show crude oil input to refineries of 16.334 million b/d this week, which should reduce oil inventory by 114.34 million barrels. .
- The math for these three items should have led to US oil inventories being down by 3.56 million barrels
- But lines 10-12 show the stock change for oil was a draw of 269,000 b/d or a draw or lower US oil inventory of the 1.883 million barrels (the 1.9 million barrels noted to start with).
- But this 1.883 million barrels draw is 1.68 million barrels less of a draw than the math above shows. .
- Hence Line 13, the adjustment or plug of 240,000 b/d or 1.68 million barrels that were found to balance the numbers. Ie. the equivalent of an added 240,000 b/d of production or imports, or less oil used at the refineries.
